By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
April 1, 2013
It is a given that Kenya
houses the third largest United Nations complex outside the United States and
Europe. It is also true that for decades now, Kenya has been the landing pad
for many operations, military, humanitarian and rescue missions in the Horn of
Africa and the larger Great Lakes Region. The United Nations agencies have
often used Kenya as a friendly nation to support military and humanitarian operations
in Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia and to some extent Uganda during the
civil war in the early 1970s.
The port of Mombasa to the
West Coast of Kenya has been the lifeline of many countries in East Africa and
the Great Lakes Region. Beneficiaries of this gateway to the Indian Ocean have
included Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, the DRC, and Northern Tanzania and at one
time served Zambia before Tazara Railway line was built to connect Zambia to
the port of Dar es Salaam.
This unique position that
Kenya commands in East Africa is the reason its general elections become the
business of every organization and government with interest in the development
of the region. The international community has invested heavily in the country
and continues to do so in the hope that all will be well. If Kenya falls apart,
many things can go wrong. Many organizations, governments, humanitarian
agencies and individuals will suffer irreparable damage. Thousands of refugees
housed in Kenya will find themselves exposed to all sorts of dangers they had
run away from in the first place.
Here in Kenya, we have a
new constitution which will be three years old this coming August. The
elections we have just gone through were the first to be held under the new
dispensation. And Kenyans had very high hopes that it would go well and
catapult the country to new levels of economic development.
For this reason, Kenyan
voters thoroughly scrutinized the campaign manifestos that the major parties
such as the Orange Democratic Party and the National Alliance party offered
them.
It was gratifying to see
that the main political parties focused on infrastructure, Regional Trade,
Regional Integration and freedom of movement of people, goods and services and
peace within the EAC.
Right now, President
Kibaki is in office on borrowed time. He will vacate the office as soon as a
new president is confirmed by the Supreme Court of Kenya since the presidential
election results have been challenged. If the Supreme Court nullifies the
results, Kenyans will go back to the polls in 60 days with another possible
rerun if none of the candidates garners more than 50% of the votes cast. If
this happens, Kenya may not get a new president for the next four or five
months if one factors in three weeks following completion of elections before a
new president is sworn in.
Kibaki’s departure will
have a direct impact on the region’s economic development. With President
Museveni they have toyed with the idea of having a more efficient railway line
running from Mombasa through Malaba and Busia to Kampala with a possible
extension to Kigali and Bujumbura in the foreseeable future. It remains to be
seen whether the new regime will pursue such ventures with vigor and whether
the new president will find chemistry with Yoweri Museveni.
It may also be remembered
that just months before Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia passed away, the three leaders
of the region, Salva Kiir of South Sudan, Zenawi and Kibaki performed a
groundbreaking ceremony in Lamu to launch a multibillion dollar infrastructure
project that would connect South Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia and facilitate the
export of South Sudan oil through the new Lamu Port. The road, rail and oil
pipeline would open up trade and human traffic between the peoples of Eastern
Africa.
Again this massive project
will very much depend on the new Ethiopian Prime Minister, whether he, Salva
Kiir and the new Kenyan president will appreciate the need for this project. Or
will the ongoing talks between Salva Kiir and Omar El Bashir stall the project
should South Sudan choose to deal with the old foe?
As Kenya puts its house in
order, it may be necessary for other member states of the East African
Community to play their part and move some common projects forward.
One such project is the Lake
Victoria Basin Commission which was launched in 2006 with its headquarters in
Kisumu. This is the greatest natural asset that belongs to all the member
states of the East African Community. The lake needs to be restored to its
former glory by carrying out massive environmental clean up, remove the
hyacinth that has become a menace choking fish and denying the region’s fishing
community their time honored livelihood.
The lake has an idle dry
dock at the Port of Kisumu and used to be the conveyor belt for goods and
passengers ferried from Mombasa and Dar
es Salaam to Northern Tanzania’s Mwanza, Musoma and Uganda’s Entebbe and Jinja
during the days of the East African
Railways and Harbours under the then East African Common Services.
With stable governments in
the Great Lakes region, water transport around the lake should be revived to
reactivate trade among the states sharing the waters of Lake Victoria.
Investments in tourism ventures including luxury yatches should freely ply the
ports in Kisumu, Entebbe, Mwanza and Jinja. If transport across the lake is
revived, pressure on our roads will be greatly reduced as bulk commercial
products including oil can be transported across the lake to Northern Tanzania,
Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and DRC.
Much as Kenya is the
biggest and strongest economy in the region, it is not lost on observers that
most of its manufactured products are consumed in East Africa. Member states
are its biggest trade partners. Therefore what happens in the rest of East
Africa and the Great Lakes Region will impact heavily on Kenya. Kenya needs
political, economic and social stability in the rest of the region as much as
the region expects the same from Kenya. Any war breaking out in Burundi, Rwanda
and Uganda as has happened in the past will be a sure recipe for chaos in Kenya
with trucks jamming its roads from Mombasa to Malaba.
The influx of refugees
will further strain the gains we have achieved in the last five years following
the disruption of business activities following the 2008 post election
violence.
Since Somalia and the two
Sudans are finally stabilizing, East Africa is looking forward to incorporating
the three countries into the East African Community if for nothing but to make
their stability sustainable.
These are Kenya’s immediate
neighbors in the East with Ethiopia also eying the EAC. If they can be
persuaded to join the EAC Common Market, the market will be big enough for the
countries in the region to do business with one another.
Right now all countries in
the region depend on oil from the Middle East to run their economies. All this oil is imported through the port of
Mombasa and the bulk of it must be moved by road, rail or pipeline to the
hinterland for destinations as far as Kigali, Bujumbura, Kigoma and Kampala. Therefore
any disruption of this traffic for whatever reason has a direct impact on the
lives of ordinary millions of citizens of East Africa. When pumps start running
dry, transport stalls and industries come to a standstill. This was the
experience East Africa went through when Kenya went through a rough patch in
2008.
Right now there is a
glimmer of hope that a number of East African countries will start producing
oil. At least news to that effect has been in the public domain for some time
now. Oil wells have been discovered in some parts of Tanzania, Uganda and
Kenya. When these wells become operational and with oil from Southern Sudan
landing in Lamu, chances of having cheaper oil and more cash to modernize our
infrastructure will be a real possibility.
One other critical
infrastructure that drives modern economies is the fibre optic cable. Currently
most of East Africa’s connections to the rest of the world in terms of modern
communications are through the port of Mombasa. In today’s world, one hour of
down time in terms of power or fibre disruption incurs losses in billions of
dollars because most of transactions including money transfer have become
electronic.
This scenario above calls
for faster movement towards regional integration so that there is recognized
authority to look after the security and well being of the citizens of the
region. With one government, one army, a common currency, a common passport and
a common identity card, East Africans will feel safer and more secure in their
own region than they feel now. Indeed it does not make sense for me to require
a passport to cross the border to Uganda, Burundi or Tanzania. As a civilized
community, let us exchange labour, expertise and skills without fear or
suspicion. That way, we will develop and move forward.
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