By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
January 2, 2013
The shaky mergers and
political alliances are over. Now we have Jubilee, CORD, Eagle and Pambazuka as
the Wamalwa- Mudavadi alliance is still cooking. Never mind that Jubilee and
Pambazuka alliances have had their rocky starts.
As Musalia was being
ejected from the Jubilee alliance over his controversial stand on the
presidential nomination process, Wamalwa chose to bolt out of Pambazuka of Cyrus
Jirongo, Gideon Moi and Nicholas Biwott to join forces with his fellow Luhya to
consolidate the Luhya vote.
For most of these
alliances especially the major ones, the coast is already clear. Kenyans
already know who the flag bearers and their running mates are. Now we know that
Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, Peter Kenneth and possibly Musalia Mudavadi will
be on the ballot as presidential candidates. We also know that former
presidential wannabes- William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka, Raphael Tuju and Eugene
Wamalwa will be ready to play second fiddle to their principals.
The other presidential
wannabes still looking for a miracle to take them to state house come March 5
2013 are Madam Martha Karua and former PS Olekyiapi who have resisted the
merger storm. How votes from their backyards will make them turn the tables on
major mergers still remains to be seen.
But there is another group
of former presidential wannabes that swallowed their pride to save their
political careers. They include Madam Charity Ngilu and Moses Wetangula who
will be nobody’s running mates. Instead they will run for senate posts in their
counties with the possibility that their parties win the majority for them to
be majority leaders. However, that possibility is still in the air as they have
first to win those seats in their counties.
However, looking at the
fractured political scene, there is a real possibility that there will be no party
with a clear majority in parliament come next year.
Jubilee or CORD may take
power with a slim majority that will be the subject of vicious attacks of
smaller parties. And knowing how Kenyan politics is more personal than issues
oriented, some of the aggrieved losers will be busy bringing down the winner
than engaging in constructive debate.
The morning after March 4th
will see two scenarios; there will be some real big names wailing and gnawing
their teeth into political oblivion for at least the next five years. These are
those who will have lost the presidency and their running mates. Unfortunately
these wailers will be the majority. And as they leak their wounds, there will
be claims of election rigging and foul play. Others will rush to court to
demand election repeat irrespective of whether that the IEBC and all groups of
observers will have given the process a clean bill of health.
Looked at another way, one
wonders what political strategies Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Raphael Tuju and
Ole Kiyiapi will have employed if indeed their intention was to build their
political portfolios for subsequent elections. This is because in Kenya, it
will be difficult to get media attention once you have lost and gone home.
Former aspirants can testify to this.
A general assessment of
the political landscape indicates there will be no major contests in Central
and Nyanza regions. The winners in these regions are already known. The impact
Raphael Tuju will have on Nyanza voters will be the same impact Martha Karua
and Peter Kenneth will have on Central region.
In Eastern region, it
would appear like the impact of Charity Ngilu is slowly being confined to Kitui
County where she faces one of her toughest battles against another seasoned
politician- David Musila for the Kitui senate seat. If Ngilu loses ground to
Musila, the combined ODM –Wiper onslaught is likely to wipe NARC out of
Ukambani politics. But like they say; it is never over until the fat lady does
her gig. Ngilu may just pull a fast one even if it is only to save her
political career.
As usual, Western province
will be a free for all affair where every party will be clawing at one another
to get the upper hand. However, the contest will be between Moses Wetangula of
CORD with support cast from the CORD entire national team. At the opposite
corner will be Wickliff Musalia Mudavadi and Eugene Wamalwa who are already
facing stiff competition in their backyards.
Chances of CORD and
Jubilee alliances splitting the votes in North Eastern the way PNU and ODM did in 2007 are very high
considering that the main political players in the current alliances are the
same.
However, the real battle
royale will be fought, won and lost in the Rift Valley. Here is where bitter
rivals will either meet their waterloo or claim victory. Raila Odinga and his
CORD team, especially the remaining Kalenjin political kingpins will want to
prove that Ruto’s departure from ODM was of no consequence. Defeating Ruto in
his backyard will be a devastating and demoralizing experience for a high
flying politician like William. It will almost put his political career in the
deep freezer for a number of years.
Ruto on the other hand
with his Jubilee brigade will want to prove that he is still the master of his
maskan and that he was the factor behind Raila Odinga’s sterling performance in
that region five years earlier.
Finally, when all is said
and done; this contest will be between CORD and Jubilee alliances. The rest of
the contenders will merely flower girls or at best escorts.
However, there is a catch.
The two horses will either win or lose the elections at the primaries if they
play dirty games with the electorate. Bungling the nomination process will hand
them sure defeat.
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