January 16, 2013
Nairobi, Kenya
By the time you read this
article, Kenya’s primary elections will have been concluded. With that
conclusion, many political careers especially in Nyanza and Central will have
been cut short. This is because these are the two regions that normally vote as
a block, making it possible to accurately predict the eventual winner by merely
going through the primaries.
However, the events of Super
Thursday put into disarray this norm. Much as it will work for most of Nyanza
this morning, the same will not be said of Central where there was total chaos,
disorder and mass migration of aspirants in all directions. It will not be
until Friday or even Saturday night before we know who will bear the TNA flag
in Central region. This confusion has spread to URP and Wiper regions in their
strongholds forcing them to extend voting time to the second day with the
attendant logistical nightmare of looking for fresh venues now that the
government has chosen to reopen schools on Friday.
This year’s elections, the
first under the new constitution, started generating fireworks before. With
candidates gunning for at least six positions all at the same time, the
competition will be stiff and the field crowded. The situation has been
compounded by six major parties merging to form three major voting blocks.
Since the stakes are so
high, it is expecting that this morning as winners rush to the IEBC offices to
hand in their nomination certificates, losers will either be rushing to court
to challenge the outcome or heading to other smaller parties considering the
rumour that already some aspirants had been issued with nomination certificates
from smaller parties just in case.
As I was updating this
article, already Hassan Omar the Senator aspirant for Mombasa and Philip Kisia
the governor aspirant for Nairobi had already switched from ODM to Wiper
Democratic Party and Federal Party of Kenya respectively.
So far, this election has
claimed two big names in politics- Cabinet Soita Shitanda of New Ford Kenya
currently of UDF and Dr. Bishop Wanjiru. They were found to have fake degree
certificates
However, if there are mass
fallouts after these primaries, how will they affect the outcome of the main
coalition parties? Will party leaders stem the unrest and stabilize the
political environment? Are we faced with another face of political realignment
before the general elections?
This year’s elections have
brought with them unusual political decisions. We have seen political
heavyweights retiring from politics without giving plausible reasons to do so.
Those major players who have so far quit politics, at least for the time being
include three cabinet ministers and a onetime MP for Mandera Central, Hon
Abdikadir Mohammed. Abdikadir chaired the parliamentary committee of the all
important Constitution review for the better part of the 10th
parliament.
It is rumoured that clan
elders in Mandera Central vetoed his candidacy and endorsed another candidate
for the ODM ticket!
Others who have pulled out
of the race include Fred Gumo, the outgoing MP for Westlands, Franklin Bett,
the outgoing MP for Bureti and Beth Mugo, the outgoing MP for Dagoretti.
Of the three cabinet
ministers, only Beth Mugo gave plausible reason for dropping out of the race.
She took the decision on advice from her doctors following her battle with
cancer in recent times.
Minister for Roads, Franklin
Bett’s departure from elective politics was not taken kindly by his constituents
prompting them to pour into the streets of Kericho to demand that he rescinds
his decision. However, after he was appointment ODM Election Board Chairman,
the die was cast.
Bett’s decision to bow out
of politics could have been prompted by Rift Valley politics. He may have
sensed that the URP would give him a run for his money, hence the decision to
bow out with some dignity. It was also strange that just a few months earlier,
Bett was upbeat and even campaigned to be nominated Raila Odinga’s running
mate.
Others have suggested that
Bett could have avoided elective politics to eye cabinet nominations in the ODM
government. By avoiding acrimonious local politics, he would stand a better
chance of winning parliamentary approval with the backing of South Rift MPs
should he be nominated.
When Musalia Mudavadi’s
UDF was being hatched by the Office of the President, there was a strong rumour
that Abdikar Mohammed, the MP for Mandera Central would play a significant
role. After all, the man had made a name for himself during the 10th
Parliament with his competent stewardship of crafting Kenya’s new constitution.
However, brilliant a lawyer as he was, there were some concerns about his
dalliance with the not so progressive forces of the political class. His
ambition to find space in the political arena might have led him astray to
begin consorting with conservatives. Now, when political alliances started taking
shape, he realized he had joined the wrong company with a real possibility of
losing the next elections. He chose to cut his losses.
Fred Gumo, the MP for
Westlands is synonymous with Westlands since the advent of multiparty politics.
Mr. Kaa Ngumu has fought many bruising battles with formidable opponents for
the last 20 years, 10 of which he spent as Kanu stalwart in Nairobi politics.
His fierce battles with Haroun Mwau and Betty Tett are still very fresh in our
minds.
Although Gumo cited his
age, mid sixties as the reason for retiring from the game he loved, eyebrows
were raised because he was definitely not the oldest if one remembers that MPs
William Ole Ntimama and Stanley Githunguri are yet to call it a day.
Could some of these
retirements have to do with the vetting process that will this time screen and
lay bare dealings of those aspiring for elective office? Could it be that there
are skeletons in their closets they are not in a hurry to get exposed? Could
Gumo’s sudden retirement from politics have to do with retired President Moi’s
car that was recently found in his possession under mysterious circumstances?
Yes, today is the D-Day
when we will know the front runners from CORD, Jubilee, Narc Kenya, Amani and
Eagle coalitions who will battle it out on March 4 2013.
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