Monday, February 6, 2012



By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
January 30, 2012

 Judging by the mammoth rallies witnessed in  Eldoret and Kiambu this week with respective youths  on top of vehicles shouting their  voices horse, it is evident that William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta command respectable followings in  their regions. What is yet to be seen is whether these massive crowds will suddenly forget the bitter memories of the aftermath of the 2007 elections and vote these two   gentlemen in to the highest office.

As we wait for more drama to unfold, let’s us see how other rallies in Kisumu, Machakos, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega, Nairobi and Garissa turn out.

Indeed these two gentlemen are not alone. They have close to 50 MPs some of them cabinet ministers towing the line. To cap it all, they have bagged the unswerving sympathies of the Vice President  of the Republic of Kenya; a man who has  hinted that he is ready to forgo his quest for the presidency to either Uhuru or Ruto should the need arise.

The man spoiling the party for this grouping is the chairman of PNU, Prof George Saitoti, a man who has chosen to have nothing to do with the PNU Alliance or any other party. He is vying for the presidency on PNU ticket period.

Uhuru Kenyatta though sounds like he is deeply rooted in PNU Alliance; he is yet to get a clear nod from his party KANU; the party that has time and time again sworn to seek the presidency on its own.

Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Democratic Party is not home and dry either. His General Secretary is questioning where he read his law degree to keep the company of two Kenyans who though still innocent in the eyes of the law, have a case to answer at The Hague in the near future.

One thing that cannot escape notice is the fact that these two Hague accused have respectable following in their backyards. Those crowds certainly do not belong to Ali Makwere, Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo Musyoka or even Njeru Githae the new acting finance minister. They belong to Uhuru and Ruto alone. Remove the two from the equation; it will be difficult even to have their allies gathering a quarter of that crowd. They just don’t have the balls to do it. They have no wherewithal or the charisma to do it.

Assuming the Ocampo duo keep the momentum, are cleared by the IEBC to contest the presidency on a joint ticket and win, what will Kenya be on the morning after the elections?

There are a series of hypothetical chain of events that will most likely take place.
First is that the nation and the rest of the world will be stunned. The world will be stunned because their trial for crimes against humanity will probably be in progress unless their appeal against confirmation hearings succeed. Their elections will remind the world of populist Adolf Hitler of Germany in the early 1930s when he won the German elections in a landslide.

Secondly, the second phase of the KANU regime will be back in full force with dire consequences for those individuals that had spent their lifetime fighting the Jogoo party. It   will be back to business as usual with attendant higher level of helpings from the state, impunity, land gifts and offloading public corporations of excess cash and property not to mention relieving the Central Bank of excess liquidity.

As the new leaders embark on the job of running Kenya, there will be several amendments to the constitution that will return most of the executive powers to the Presidency. Having won the elections in a landslide, they will easily galvanize the 65% majority in Parliament to amend any part of the constitution that may give them unnecessary irritation.

To reward their supporters country-wide, the first clause that will be deleted from the constitution will be the requirement to recruit cabinet secretaries from outside parliament. Yes, supporters will be appointed to the cabinet and will retain the title of honorable minister. To accommodate all supporters from different parts of the country, the cabinet will be as large as possible, may be 48 ministers to give at least six ministerial portfolios to each province with Central and Rift Valley taking the lion’s share.

To make life easy for the new regime, Parliament will have to dissolve several commissions to save the much needed tax payers funds. Lined up for scrapping will be  the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, the Commission for the Implementation of the Constitution, Kenya National Human Rights and Gender Equity  Commission and of course the Ombudsman’s office.

 As Parliament will be busy fine tuning the new constitution to meet the challenges of 2012 and beyond, there will be a few activities on the national and global front. The Republicans in Mombasa will be upping their game in a bid to say good bye to Kenyan Republic. Down in the Lake Region, some Luos and possibly Luhyas will be weighing their options of being the youngest members of the UN and the AU.

Meanwhile the European Union will have issued travel advisories warning their nationals against visiting or dealing with the new regime. Reason? Because the President and his deputy would be required to answer charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague. Along with these advisories, the US and Britain will be pushing for  full sanctions against the Nairobi regime  since by that time  the  two  leaders will have been advised by Omar El Bashir  to stop going to the Hague for those useless trials that only target Africans.

Meanwhile, Jeremiah Kioni , the Ndaragwa MP will be putting the final touches on the bill to  disband the Senate,  County Governments and if possible the Gender Equity clause that requires special seats  reserved for women. He will in this crusade strive to save the tax payers money and make politics more competitive and democratic than ever before.

However, since either Ruto or Uhuru will be the Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka will take the portfolio of the Ministry of Shuttle Diplomacy to deal with problems that the Civil Society will give the new regime. This will be done as Uhuru and Ruto also reclaim their God given ministries of Finance and Agriculture.

In this scenario, Raila Odinga will be asked to retire from politics for good in the interest of peace, progress, reconciliation and national development.