Saturday, August 21, 2010



Angela Ambitho, Chief Executive Oficer Infotrak Research speaks during a press briefing  in Nairobi on Saturday. A new poll indicated that most Kenyans were satisfied with the outcome of the referendum. JENNIFER MUIRURI

Angela Ambitho, Chief Executive Oficer Infotrak Research speaks during a press briefing in Nairobi on Saturday. A new poll indicated that most Kenyans were satisfied with the outcome of the referendum. JENNIFER MUIRURI

Posted Saturday, August 21 2010 at 12:31

An overwhelming majority of Kenyans, 91 per cent, support the August 4 referendum outcome, according to the latest opinion poll by Infotrak Harris.

The poll shows the level of satisfaction as very high across the entire country, including in Rift Valley Province where a majority voted against the proposed law.

The survey, which also looks at the politics of the 2012 General Elections, indicates Prime Minister Raila Odinga as the most preferred presidential candidate, with nearly half of respondents (46 per cent) endorsing him.

He is followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta with 13 per cent, and Higher Education minister William Ruto at 10 per cent.

Mr Kenyatta is also seen as the most popular running mate at 30 per cent, followed by deputy Prime minister Musalia Mudavadi and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, both getting 18 per cent approval. 13 per cent of Kenyans support Mr Ruto as a potential running mate.

In the presidential race, Water minister Charity Ngilu is at fourth position with seven per cent, edging just ahead of Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka at six per cent. As running mate, Ngilu has 9 per cent chance

Interestingly, six per cent of Kenyans, according to the poll, would vote in President Kibaki at the 2012 elections, despite him not being eligible for re-election as he has already served the two terms stipulated by the Kenyan laws.

Gichugu legislator Martha Karua, Mr Mudavadi and Internal Security minister George Saitoti would be voted as President by six, four and two per cent of Kenyans respectively. As running mate, Ms Karua gets eight per cent approval, ahead of Saitoti's two per cent.

A sample of 1200 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of about 19 million, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8. The survey was conducted in all provinces.

Of the possible 2012 presidential contenders, a regional analysis indicates that Raila is endorsed by over 50 per cent of people in all the provinces apart from Central, Eastern and Rift Valley.

Uhuru Kenyatta gets endorsement mainly from Central Province where 30 per cent wish to see him as President. Interestingly, Martha Karua and Kibaki also get a relatively strong showing in the province.

William Ruto is mostly endorsed in Rift Valley, with 38 per cent. The same province has 26 per cent supporting Mr Odinga as the future president.

The new Constitution stipulates that a presidential candidate must garner an overall 50 plus one per cent of votes across the country, and 25 per cent of votes in half of the 47 counties to be created.

The Infotrak poll report notes that, given the situation, "very few candidates seem to stand a chance of making it to the big seat if elections were held today."

"This in a nutshell brings forth the need for consolidation of alliance in the period culminating to the 2012 elections."

Kenya's new law is expected to be pronounced Friday, August 27, at a public ceremony at Uhuru Park in Nairobi.

Majority of Kenyans support the new law which will take effect from Friday this week, because of the promise of positive change that it holds. Seventy-eight per cent of Kenyans endorse it for that reason, while 48 per cent indicated that the new law is better than the existing one.

More than half of Kenyans are also happy that the country is still peaceful and the voting was not characterized by violence.

The free and fair voting process with no incidents of rigging also led to 50 per cent of Kenyans being satisfied. Closely linked to this is the efficiency of the IIEC which managed the process beyond most Kenyans expectations.

However, nine per cent of Kenyans are not satisfied with the outcome of the referendum, with the majority unhappy because the church was defeated. Other reasons given are that the ‘NO’ team lost, issues considered contentious like abortion and kadhis courts have not been solved, and use of state machinery during the elections.

Biased electoral commission officials, rigging and poor voter turnout in some regions are also cited as reasons for not being satisfied with the referendum outcome.