HOW EAST AFRICA FARED IN THE LAST DECADE

The New Vision
January 2010

By Jerry Okungu

TODAY is the first day of another year, another decade this century. And for what it is worth, let us take stock not only of what we achieved or failed to achieve in 2009 but do so for the last 10 years since the turn of the century.
For us in East Africa, the end of the 20th century also ushered in a new era.

We signed a fresh treaty that revived the East African Community; perhaps the best gift the region got before ushering in a new century.

While we have striven to actualise the dream of an East African community, the world community also budged in with several promises for the new century. The UN introduced what was called the MillenniumDevelopment Goals for the developing and less developed countries. Those that achieved certain milestones were promised cash rewards in terms of grants to get them out of their poverty traps.

As the world celebrated the new century, there was a lot of optimism in the air. Most countries were upbeat about the MDGs. However, as the first decade dragged on, fatigue set in and less and less was heard of the MDGs. For those countries that set up secretariats to manage MGD funds, quite a number embezzled their first tranches and in the process triggered off protests from the donor community.

On the East African front, the East African Community has weathered several storms and the process achieved two stages of its process to full political federation. Half way through the first decade, it realised the Customs Union and just weeks before the end of the decade, it concluded the Common Market protocol.

The decade also saw Benjamin Mkapa relinquish Tanzania’s presidency to the younger Jakaya Kikwete after ruling that country for 10 years from 1995. However, in neighbouring Uganda, Yoweri Museveni soldiered on for another decade despite having ruled Uganda for 15 years of the last century. In Kenya, the political landscape changed drastically. The decade saw Daniel arap Moi and Kanu dislodged from power just two years into the new millennium. However, despite winning the election with a landslide in 2002, Mwai Kibaki found the going getting tougher, what with scandals of mega corruption, tribalism and land problems. Seven years into the new millennium, political violence rocked Kenya like never before.

As we enter the second decade in this millennium, more changes are likely to alter the political landscape of our region. Ugandans are expected to witness the first combined opposition against the NRM come 2011. Whether they do a Kibaki-Narc thing against Museveni and NRM jaggounot is yet to be seen. The next decade will also see Kibaki and Kikwete retire from politics as they complete their mandatory two terms.

Whereas it is almost certain who will be Kenya’s commander-in-chief in 2012, it is still not clear who will emerge in Tanzania to take over from Kikwete when his term ends. For Kenyans, there will be more drama before the next general elections. They have the new constitution to deal with, the referendum to handle and generally to build several institutions before the next elections. However, the more dramatic events will definitely be the eviction of powerful political figures from Mau forests; whether they get compensated for forests they illegally acquired is another story altogether.

However, the mere fact that the likes of former president Daniel arap Moi will be evicted is a real pointer to the drama awaiting Kenyans very early in this decade.
But perhaps the biggest test awaiting Kenyans is the planned Hague trials for those that planned and financed the 2007 post-election violence. As Kenyans wait with bated breath the revelation of names in the Ocampo list, the anxiety building up is less to do with convictions and more to do with promising political careers going down the drain.

However, given the Kenyan way of hyping ethnic tensions, it will not be a wonder if warlords do not retreat into their tribal cocoons with potential for another round of ethnic violence. On a positive note, Rwanda has remarkably recovered from the 1994 genocide and is busy rebuilding its reputation as a progressive nation.
The decade also saw Rwanda and Burundi get admitted into the East African Community, something that has been a stabilising factor for all member states.

As we move on into the second decade, let us hope Joseph Kony will be a thing of the past and that Southern Sudan and Ethiopia will join the East African Community before the end of the second decade.

Happy New Year fellow East Africans wherever you may be!