THE IMPACT OF MARTHA KARUA’S RESIGNATION ON KENYA’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

By Jerry Okungu
Berbera, Somaliland
April 9, 2009

There have been major and even bigger resignations in the past. They never shook the political establishment substantially. The resignations of Kibaki, Matiba and Nyachae from Moi’s cabinet made no difference to the regime of the day. Very soon, Kenyans had forgotten that they were even important cabinet ministers at one point in time.

Sometime in 2000, Dr.Bessigye of Uganda, a one- time liberation comrade of Yoweri Museveni resigned from NRM with the intention of toppling Kaguta’s government through a democratic process. He campaigned so hard and went ahead to lose the next elections very badly. There were several theories surrounding his dismal performance. Some opined that there was no level playing field. Others said that Museveni employed unethical tactics such as harassment, intimidation and bribery to ensure that his once upon a time personal physician never won the elections.

Soon after the 2000 elections in Uganda, Bessigye fled to South Africa claiming that his life was in danger. However, for the following four years, he remained in South Africa while campaigning against Museveni‘s regime within the international community as he waited for the next elections that were due in 2005.

Come 2005, Bessigye made a dramatic return to Uganda and actually secured another nomination under the FDC- the Forum for Democratic Change fashioned after the 1991 Party of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s Forum for the Restoration of Democracy -FORD. Again Bessigye performed rather dismally.

Now the talk in Uganda is that, the good doctor is finished politically. They say his best chance was in 2005 and he blew it again.

Late last year, the ANC of South Africa sacked their president Thabo Mbeki over accusations that he had abused his authority to punish his deputy president Jacob Zuma and possibly derail Zuma’s chances of succeeding him when his term ended in 2009

These accusations were prompted by a court ruling that pointed out that charges of corruption against Zuma were actually framed by Mbeki’s friendly intelligence officers and that they were acting at the behest of President Thabo Mbeki.

When Mbeki left office, a number of senior cabinet ministers sympathetic to him resigned in solidarity with him to form another party called COPE to fight against the ANC at the April 2009 elections which are due in just two weeks. However as the D-Day approaches, there are indications that COPE is fast fizzling out and at best , the new kid on the block might just manage 8% if their gods will still be on their side on election day!

In Kenya, party dissidents who resign from their traditional parties never win against incumbents unless one is a late comer in a cooperation arrangement as Raila Odinga was in 2002 when he cooperated with KANU between 1998 and 2002 that culminated in the merger of the two parties.

However in a normal timed resignation to form an opposition party to challenge the incumbent; one is likely to face the onslaught as Kibaki faced in 1992 when he resigned as Moi’s Health Minister to challenge his boss on the eve of the first multiparty elections in 30 years. Kibaki had to languish in the political wilderness for a decade before he was rescued by rebels from KANU in 2002 to clinch the presidency under the first coalition government in Kenya.

Martha Karua’s case is slightly different. She will not be facing Kibaki at the polls because the president will constitutionally retire at the end of 2012. What she will be faced with will be either one of Kibaki’s preferred successors or a whole range of presidential wannabes waiting to occupy the House on the Hill. And chances of beating Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, George Saitoti, William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi at the polls are pretty small. If she does well, she may come third or fourth in the next elections. In which case, Karua should lower her expectations and see the next battle as a marketing opportunity to sell her presidential credentials to all Kenyans across the board.

It will therefore be imperative that Karua builds many bridges, repairs some and cultivates several crucial alliances in readiness for 2017 and 2022 when she will most likely be ready to clinch the presidency. My theory for suggesting those dates is informed by the fact that 15 years from now, a number of the current presidential candidates will be in their mid 70s and will definitely have lost appeal with Kenyans. Others will probably be languishing in jail for one reason or another depending on how the Hague trials are handled.

However, if she remains combative, abrasive and dismissive of political competitors both in Mt. Kenya and elsewhere in the country, her ambitions will come a cropper.

jerryokungu@gmail.com