THE COMPLEX SOMALI WAR THAT WILL NEVER END UNTILL VESTED INTERESTS STOP MEDDLING

By Jerry Okungu & Said Ibrahim Hussein( Bunna)
Hargeisa, Somaliland
April 13, 2009

Said Ibrahim Hussein is a young and promising journalist from war-torn Somalia. Chaotic as Somalia is, Hussein, nicknamed BUUNA is as enterprising as any young man in Somalia cab be. Instead of taking an AK 47 to the streets to terrorize fellow countrymen or fight other warlords’ wars, Bunna has decided to use his intellect.

Instead of hijacking ships in the high seas for overnight wealth, Bunna is busy building personal news websites and yu-tubes in this chaotic country. And thanks to the generosity of Care International that took him to Kenya for further training in 2008 and now in Somaliland, Bunna is a proud owner of a fairly up-market laptop that can make him do wonders with the new media.

In one of his websites I came across after talking to him, Bunna argues that the outside world does not really understand the murky waters of the Somali conflict. He argues that the war will continue until vested interests both inside and outside Somalia come to their senses.

He says that the tragic war of Somalia that continues to claim innocent lives and suffering to thousands of women and children has inside players, outside actors and two victims. He defines the two victims as the Somali people and their lawless country.

For him, the inside players include warlords, religious extremists, the unpopular and unelected Transitional Federal Governments, clan supremacists and business opportunists out to cash in on the war.

To sustain the conflict between these inside players, vested interest groups from the international community have not made things any better. This category includes the regime of Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, the misguided American policy of interventionism, the helplessness of the Arab League, the indifference of the European Union and the African Union, the Somalia UN employees based in Nairobi, the IGAD member states, specifically the meddling in Somalia affairs by Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya and those that have caused piracy to take root on Somali coast.

Bunna, like most Somalis in the region believes that these high stakes players have succeeded in one thing; to "light fire then add fuel and firewood around the Somali victims and their troubled country". However, he believes that not all actors understand what is wrong with Somalia or the consequences of their actions.

According to Bunna, the Somali drama gets complicated by constant and calculated Zenawi interventions. He believes that the Zenawi regime has two goals to achieve in Somalia for the Ethiopian leader.

First, they see Zenawi’s regional and long term interests. On this front, the turmoil in Sudan has inadvertently played a part.

Because Sudan is embroiled in its own internal strife UN and international pressure is mounting on El Bashir to either end the Darfur conflict or face the Hague trial for crimes and against humanity among other charges. For this reason, Zenawi regime now sees itself as the only remaining viable super power in the Horn of Africa. And it has proved to the UN, USA and the AU that it can play that role by sending Peace Keeping troops to Somalia under the AU umbrella in the recent past.

Secondly, Zenawi sees Somalia as a state that should permanently dependend on Ethiopia. For Somalia to do this, it should be weak militarily, politically disorganized and geographically dismembered into smaller states like Somaliland, Somalia, Puntland and Jubaland.

Unfortunately, most Somalis seem to suspect that Kenya is backing this Ethiopian expansionist strategy.

Bunna has the opinion that if Meles Zenawi is to fulfill his expansionist ambition in the Horn of Africa, his plan and tactics should ensure that every Somali Transition Government fails. In so doing, he will ensure that all warring factions including Al- Shabab get enough military hardware to sustain the conflict. At the same time, the Ethiopian regime will also arm the Transitional Federal Government and the Sharif group. In the meantime, Meles will make sure that all Somali factions continue to view one another with suspicion to make dialogue impossible.

A good example here was when Ethiopia immediately lauded President Sharif Ahmed knowing full well that such public acknowledgement of Sharif would elicit immediate condemnation from Dahir Aways, Dr. Omar Iman, Abu-Mansor and other warlords.

The Ethiopian regime is well aware that if it fuels the internal strife among factions in Somalia, there will be more casualties there even among the TFG soldiers to the extent that in future conflicts with Ethiopia, they would be no match for the Ethiopian military.

His ultimate goal is to make the Sharif regime fail the way Abdulahi Yusuf’s regime failed despite his “support”.

Once Somalia is permanently embroiled in chaos and lawlessness culminating in piracy on international waters as is the case now, the Ethiopian regime will turn around and convince the European Union, the United States and the AU of the danger to international peace paused by Somalia. Then he will get the nod and resources to invade and occupy Somalia.

The Eritrean factor:
Eritreans as a people would like to help the Somali government in general. They understand the ways of Somalis and their country’s situation. They know the Somalis and their government helped them during their 30 years of war against the brutal Ethiopian regimes.

Their interest in Somalia is to perpetuate the Somali conflict so that there is always a potential threat from Somalia to Ethiopia to counterbalance the Ethiopian permanent aggression against Eritrea.

In their interest, any government that comes in Somalia must at least befriend Eritrea or at worst not to befriend an Ethiopian regime, especially the current one.

The Sharia law factor:
The Al-Shabab Group that is currently waging war on Sharif’s government argues that they want the full application of the Sharia law in Somalia. This makes the regime led by Sharif be in a difficult situation due to internal factors and external pressure. The likelihood of Sharif regime collapsing is therefore very high.
The fact of the matter is; Sharif’s regime does not have any problem adopting Sharia law in Somalia since the Council of Ministers had approved the same recently. It is the Al- Shabab’s version or their own interpretation that is in contention.

The Al-Shabab group:
This group is ideologically driven, stringent in their application of Islam and does not permit difference of opinion that Islam entertains. It would appear like they are misusing the Islamic Religion to serve their own ambitions and interests. And to ensure their opinion prevails, they have resorted to eliminating a good number of religious scholars that are opposed to their views. The latest such victims were the two scholars killed in Galkaio and Beledweyn provinces. These extremists have gone to the extent of peaceful worshippers at Mowlid festivals in mosques. Such callous murders of the innocent faithfuls recently took place Bardheere and other parts of Somalia. This was despite the fact that a recent religious scholars meeting in Mogadishu had clearly stated that there is no religious proof that allows any group to kill Muslims simply because such Muslims have expressed a different opinion or offered an acceptable interpretation of the Islamic Hadith.

African forces in Somalia:
Scholars at the Mogadishu conference stated that Islam did not allow Somalis to attack the Peace Keeping forces because they were invited into the country in the first place and had a clear timetable when they would depart. Despite this assurance, the Al- Shabab militia still invaded the African Peace Keeping base causing high civilian casualties at a time when the Ethiopian forces had left the country.

The government of Sharif:
This government is composed of two factions; the remnants of Abdulahi Yusuf’s TFG and the Union of Islamic Courts- the Djibouti branch. The regime’s task is to untangle the complex web of the Somali conflict. This mission may prove impossible if Sharif does not handle the problem with caution and decisiveness.
Where is Somalia heading to?

It all depends on how Somalis themselves will accommodate one another, forgive each other and hold hands together as brothers and sisters, fathers and mothers, leaders and citizens. If they can discuss their issues peacefully without resorting to the grenade or bazooka, there is hope for the failed state.

Currently there are more than 3 million Somalis facing starvation. There are thousands of widows and orphaned children in every Somali city. There is no need for there is no need for this war to go on now. All other groups and especially the Al Shabab group should understand this basic logic.

jerryokungu@gmail.com