NOW THAT THE RACE TO STATE HOUSE IS ON; KENYANS MUST DECIDE VERY EARLY WHO THEY WANT AT THE HILL IN 2012

By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
March 16, 2008

It does not matter that the next elections are some four years away. Presidential aspirants interested in replacing Kibaki are not taking any chances.
Uhuru Kenyatta thinks he can achieve what he didn’t get in 2002 if he forms an alliance with William Ruto; never mind that he was with the same Ruto in one camp then under Moi.

What Uhuru Kenyatta may have do deal with first is not even Martha Karua in Central Province. He may have to confront KANU operatives in Rift Valley Province who may not take kindly to his presence in PNU; the Party that has made him Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance while his KANU supporters Gideon Moi and Nick Salat are languishing in political oblivion. Particularly unhappy with him are these two men who were swept aside by the Orange wave in Rift Valley during the 2007 elections.

The other problem Uhuru may face in his quest for the presidency may not necessarily be his opponents like Martha Karua, George Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga and Wakoli Bifwoli. It may have to do with some very influential people in Central Province who do not believe that he has a fighting chance. These people are rational enough to know that another Kikuyu president immediately after Kibaki’s ten year tenure may not go well with Kenyans.

Assuming that Uhuru convinces William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka to be in his camp against ODM, there is no guarantee that their communities will accept to be herded into a voting block. More importantly, apart from Central Province; Rift Valley and Eastern provinces are not and will never be as homogenous in their voting habits. Different communities in these provinces will most likely vote differently the way they have done since independence.

It will be an uphill task for Kalonzo or Uhuru to convince Merus and Embus to follow them into whatever outfit they may want to get into because none of the two politicians are Mwai Kibaki, Kenneth Matiba or Jomo Kenyatta. More importantly, Mwai Kibaki nursed the Meru and Embu votes consistently for ten years under DP until he finally got to State House and when he did, he rewarded them most handsomely with high profile ministries and lucrative jobs in the public service.

Kalonzo on the other hand can only count on the Akamba votes which he is not sure of capturing to a man since he has simmering undercurrents there too. First he has some restless youthful MPs who think he is not the right type of leader for their community due to his perceived meanness if not outright vindictiveness.

Other than the opposition from within his ODMK in Ukambani, he has Charity Ngilu to deal with when you consider that she has never lost a chance to remind him and his supporters that he has no fighting chance of being president of this country. The lady supports Raila Odinga

But even if there was a Kalonzo- Ruto –Kenyatta alliance, and assuming that the three provinces supported them; they would still be short of two more provinces to clinch the presidency. One hopes that they will have the stamina and charisma to clinch Nairobi, Coast and Possibly North Eastern to comfortably with the race.
The snag is; as much as Ruto will be vigorously campaigning for either Uhuru or Kalonzo for president in the hope that he would be among the top three, Gideon Moi will probably be running for president under KANU and chances of splitting the votes in Rift Valley are very high.

This scenario means that there is no guarantee that William Ruto will carry the day as he did in 2007 because this time round, his support team from Kipsigis and other Kalenjin sub tribes may never be with him.

What about Raila Odinga? It will be no easy ride for him either. The Coalition alliance has shaken most of his base constituencies in Western and Northern Kenya. He will have to convince the Muslims and the rest of Kenya that he can still deliver when he finally gets elected.

The biggest challenge Raila Odinga will face will be the question of how he dealt with corruption, reforms and impunity when he was Prime Minister.
The big question is; do Kenyans want any one of these people to be their next president?

jerryokungu@gmail.com