EAST AFRICA MUST BRACE FOR ANOTHER KENYAN GENERAL ELECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED

By Jerry Okungu
Nairobi, Kenya
March 10, 2009

The sounds of the drums of war are all over the place. Rift Valley warlords are spoiling for a fight. Central Province is beating its chest, being urged on by Eastern Province. Nyanza is biting its nails and cursing once more as Western Kenya watches the developments carefully. The peaceful coastal region, volatile North Eastern and Nairobi Provinces are waiting on the wings to see which direction the wind blows.

In all this familiar drama of Kenyan politics; one thing is for sure, that the hounds are baying for the blood of one Raila Odinga.

Forget Mwai Kibaki’s legacy. Forget Martha Karua’s pronouncements about the 2012 elections. Forget the constitution review and all those high sounding meaningless phrases. Our politics is not interested in those invisible reform agenda. The real picture is beginning to form around Raila Odinga. He is the real prize that all the hunters are aiming at. And they have many reasons for aiming their arrows at him. Yes, he has been a pain in their necks since 1982.

Chances are higher that Kenya will soon be ungovernable by the present coalition. One way or another, Kibaki will be forced to dissolve Parliament in another 12 months or less.

The hounds rocking the coalition boat are former KANU stalwarts that were scattered to the four corners of Kenya when Raila Odinga’s tsunami entered the political scene in early 1998 with his National Democratic Party outfit. That was the party that Raila used to entice Moi and finally dismantled KANU five years later. That was soon after the then KANU Secretary General had prophesied that KANU would rule Kenya for 100 years.

By the look of things; it would appear like Kamotho’s prophesy will be fulfilled in his lifetime because KANU is about to come back to power with a bang after a short ten year break under Kibaki ; which in reality was never a break.

Look at it this way; in the present cabinet we have 21 out of 41 former KANU stalwarts serving under Kibaki. Most of them were senior cabinet ministers in the last Moi government while others served Moi in senior government positions as permanent secretaries, personal secretaries or personal lawyers. Of these 21 former KANU ministers 12 of them were actually appointed by ODM in the present cabinet.
This means that of the 20 ministries assigned to ODM, 60% of them are former KANU stalwarts. This is the group that has come together and formed a faction within the ODM to scuttle Raila Odinga’s future political plans.

These KANU moles in ODM have nothing to lose if Raila Odinga walks out of the coalition now or loses the presidency again in 2012.

They have no tears for the man who has told them to their faces that the 1982 coupe attempt was justified because Kenyans were fighting dictatorship.

They have no tears to shed for a man who gave them sleepless nights in 2002 and caused KANU its first defeat in 40 years. They are awaiting payback time for the humiliation Raila Odinga gave them in 2002. And they are many who have an axe to grind with Raila.

To begin with, a lot of these characters never wanted Raila in KANU in 2002 when Moi was hell bent on merging KANU with Raila’s NDP. That merger saw then KANU Secretary General JJ Kamotho and Vice President George Saitoti lose their top KANU posts to new comers Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU Secretary General and First Party Vice Chairman respectively.

That alliance with Moi hardly lasted three months when Raila bolted out of KANU to form a loose movement called the Rainbow Coalition. In bolting out of KANU in late 2002, he harvested more than he had brought in. He convinced KANU old guards like George Saitoti, Moody Awori, Kalonzo Musyoka and William Ole Ntimama among others to follow him. This is the group that teamed up with Kibaki’s outfit to hand Moi and KANU its first defeat.

Uhuru is angry that Raila denied him the presidency that Moi had promised him in 2002. Moi and his sons are angry with Raila for humiliating them a second time in 2007 when all his three sons lost the elections to ODM. Moi has not come to terms with the fact that the entire Rift Valley turned against him and voted for Raila’s party. In fact all those Moi faithfuls who lost elections are looking to the day William Ruto and others will turn against Raila and cost him his political career. They are itching to have the last laugh.

As all these developments are taking place inside ODM, other forces equally angry with Raila like Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka are waiting in the wings with baited breath to see him off the road. Whether he loses this looming battle or not is the subject of a future story.

jerryokungu@gmail.com