KENYA OBSERVATION EVIDENCE: GUIDE TO PART THREE OF THE EVIDENCE OF DR. DAVID W. THROUP TO THE INDEPENDENT REVIEW COMMISSION

The following histograms and box charts are based on a computer analysis of the December 2007 election results employing up to seven independent variables. The variables used to analyze and contrast the December 2007 Presidential election results, as announced by the Electoral Commission of Kenya, were (i) the December 2007 Kenya Parliamentary results, (ii) a District aggregate figure (based on 69 Districts), (iii) an ethnic aggregate calculated for the main ethnic groups (Kikuyu, Luo, Kalenjin-Maasai-Turkana-Samburu, the Coast peoples, and the Kamba), (iv) the 2002 Presidential results, (v) the 1997 Presidential results and (vi) the 1992 Presidential results (taking into account the creation of an additional 22 constituencies before the 1997 election).

The best single predictor of the 2007 Presidential election in each constituency, are the December 2007 Parliamentary elections plus an aggregate District variable calculated for 69 Districts. The coefficient of determination - R2 – or the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted for by our statistical model, is 0.968. In this case, R2 is simply the square of the correlation coefficient. This is an extremely high figure, which is improved only marginally – if at all – by including the other variables. The following histograms and box charts identify outliers – i.e. those constituencies where the correlation was significantly less close, suggesting possible problems with the results.

The main calculations have employed the figures released by the Electoral Commission of Kenya on their web-site, but certain histograms (which will be identified) have substituted the alternate Presidential results released by the Orange Democratic Movement, and the results recorded by members of the European Union Observer Mission. It will be evident that the ODM results and the European Union Observer Mission figures have a much lower correlation with the Parliamentary results and, consequently, appear to be less reliable than the figures released by the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

The following histograms provide the results of our analysis.

Slide 1: Histogram 1:
President Kibaki’s Presidential performance in 2007 correlated with the 2007 Parliamentary results.
Slide 2: Histogram 2:
The proportion of valid registered votes by constituency compared with the proportion cast for President Kibaki.
Slide 3: Histogram 3:
The proportion of valid registered votes by constituency compared with the proportion cast for Mr Odinga.
Slide 4: Histogram 4:
The proportion of valid registered votes by constituency compared with the proportion cast for Mr Musyoka.
Slide 5: Histogram 5:
The number of constituencies with a particular level of turnout.
Slide 6: Histogram 6:
The proportion of the vote secured by Mr Odinga by numbers of constituencies.
Slide 7: Histogram 7:
The proportion of the vote secured by President Kibaki by numbers of constituencies.
Slide 8: Histogram 8:
The proportion of the voter (over 1%) secured by Mr Odinga by numbers of constituencies (to provide a closer comparison with Histogram 7).
Slide 9: Histogram 9:
Mr Odinga’s proportion of the valid vote compared with the ODM’s share of the Parliamentary vote.
Slide 10: Histogram 10:
President Kibaki’s proportion of the valid vote compared with the PNU’s share of the Parliamentary vote.
Slide 11: Histogram 11:
The overall number of valid votes cast in Kikuyu ethnic constituencies (i.e. those constituencies with 80% or more ethnic Kikuyu voters) compared with the predicted turnout (based on the Parliamentary turnout). These figures use results supplied by the ODM and the EUOM for Kieni, Juja, Maragwa, Molo and Niithi.
Slide 12: Box Chart 1:
Identifies Maragwa, Kieni, Molo and Juja as aberrant results in the Kikuyu constituencies, if one employs the ODM or EUOM Presidential results.
Slide 13: Box Chart 2:
Identifies additional aberrant results in the Kikuyu constituencies if one compares the 2007 Presidential results with the 2007 Parliamentary results plus a district aggregate, using the ODM/EUOM figures for Kieni, Juja, Maragwa, Molo and Niithi, and the ECK’s declaration for the other constituencies.
Slide 14: Histogram12:
The correlation between the proportion of the votes vast in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary election plus an calculated aggregate for ethnicity (using the five problem results from the ODM/EUOM).
Slide 15: Box Chart 3:
Aberrant turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election, compared with the turnout in the 2007 Parliamentary election plus an ethnic aggregate (using the five problem results from the ODM/EUOM).
Slide 16: Box Chart 4:
Aberrant turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with a variable calculated from the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus the 2002 Presidential results, plus a district aggregate (using the five problem results from the ODM/EUOM).
Slide 17: Box Chart 5:
Aberrant turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results plus a variable for ethnicity (using the five problem results from the ODM/EUOM).
Slide 18: Box Chart 6:
Aberrant turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, the 2002 Presidential election, plus ethnic and district variables (using the five problem results from the ODM/EUOM).
Slide 19: Box Chart 7:
Problem proportion of votes cast for President Kibaki in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary result and district and ethnic variables (using the five problem ODM/EUOM results).
Slide 20: Box Chart 8:
Problem proportion of votes cast for Mr Odinga in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary result and district and ethnic variables (using the five problem ODM/EUOM results).
Slide 21: Box Chart 9:
Problem proportion of votes cast for Mr Musyoka in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary result and distri8ct and ethnic variables (using the five problem ODM/EUOM results).
Slide 22: Histogram 13:
Proportion of the votes cast for Mr Musyoka in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion cast for ODM-K Parliamentary candidates in 2007 with district and ethnic variables.
Slide 23: Histogram14:
Proportion of the votes cast in the 2007 Presidential election in Luo constituencies compared with the 2007 Parliamentary election.
Slide 24: Box Chart 10:
Problem Luo seats in the 2007 Presidential election – i.e. none.
Slide 25: Histogram15:
Proportion of votes cast for President Kibaki in the 2007 Presidential election compared to the 2007 Parliamentary election plus variables for district and ethnicity (using the five problem ODM/EUOM results).
Slide 26: Histogram16:
Proportion of the votes cast for Mr Odinga in the 2007 Presidential election compared to the 2007 Parliamentary election plus variables for district and ethnicity (using the five problem ODM/EUOM results).
Slide 27: Histogram 17:
Aberrant turnout in Kalenjin-Maasai-Turkana-Samburu seats in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary result.
Slide 28: Box Chart 11:
Problem Kalenjin-Maasai-Turkana-Samburu turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary result.
Slide 29: Histogram 18:
Mr Musyoka’s vote in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion for ODM-K Parliamentary candidates.
Slide 30: Histogram 19:
President Kibaki’s vote in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion for the PNU’s Parliamentary candidates – the main problem constituencies are in the bottom right of the Histogram (employing the ECK numerical classification of constituencies).
Slide 31: Histogram 20:
Mr Odinga’s vote in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion for the ODM’s Parliamentary candidates.
Slide 32: Histogram 21:
President Kibaki’s vote in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion for the PNU plus allied parties’ Parliamentary candidates.
Slide 33: Histogram 22:
President Kibaki’s vote in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the proportion for the PNU plus allied parties’ Parliamentary candidates with constituencies identified.
Slide 34: Histogram 23:
Total votes cast in the 2007 Parliamentary election compared with votes cast in the Presidential election.
Slide 35: Histogram 24:
Proportionate turnout in the 2007 Parliamentary election compared with the proportion cast in the Presidential election.
Slide 36: Not included.
Slide 37: Not included.
Slide 38: Box Chart 12:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus district and ethnic variables using the EUOM, the ECK and ODM results.
Slide 39: Box Chart 13:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus an ethnic variable, calculated from the results released by the ECK.
Slide 40: Box Chart 14:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus an ethnic variable, calculated from the results claimed by the ODM (and the EUOM).
Slide 41: Box Chart 15:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus district and ethnic variables, calculated from the results released by the ECK.
Slide 42: Box Chart 16:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus district and ethnic variables, calculated from the results claimed by the ODM.
Slide 43: Box Chart 17:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election calculated from the results released by the ODM.
Slide 44: Box Chart 18:
Problem constituency turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election identified by comparing the results with the 2007 Parliamentary results plus a district variable.
Slide 45: Box Chart 19:
Problem constituency results in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, plus a district variable, calculated from the results released by the EUOM, the ECK and the ODM.
Slide 46: Box Chart 20:
Problem proportionate turnouts.
Slide 47: Box Chart 21:
Problem aggregate turnouts, i.e. the extremely large Nairobi seats plus Eldoret North.
Slide 48: Histogram 25:
A linear regression scatter histogram, based on the ECK results, identifying aberrant constituencies.
Slide 49: Box Chart 22:
A linear regression of the Presidential and Parliamentary results in 2007, plus a district variable, identifying aberrant constituencies, calculated from the ECK results.
Slide 50: Box Chart 23:
A linear regression of the Presidential and Parliamentary results, plus a district variable, calculated from the results released by the ODM.
Slide 51: Box Chart 24:
A linear regression of the Presidential results, calculated from the results released by the ECK, plus the five problematic constituencies identified by the EUOM.
Slide 52: Histogram 26:
The histogram compares President Kibaki’s performance in the 2007 Presidential election with his predicted performance based on the 1997 Presidential election results. To the left of the line Kibaki performed better than predicted, and to the right he did worse.
Slide 53: Histogram 27:
President Kibaki’s performance in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the performance of the PNU’s Parliamentary candidates in 2007, using the results released by the ECK.
Slide 54: Histogram 28:
President Kibaki’s performance in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the performance of the PNU plus allies’ Parliamentary candidates in 2007, using the results released by the ECK.
Slide 55: Not included.
Slide 56: Box Chart 25:
Problem turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary election, plus a district variable, calculated from the results released by the EUOM, the ODM and the ECK.
Slide 57: Box Chart 26:
Problem turnouts in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary election, plus an ethnic variable, calculated from the results released by the EUOM, the ODM and the ECK.
Slide 58: Box Chart 27:
Problem votes for President Kibaki in the 2007 Presidential election compared with the 2007 Parliamentary results, the 1997 Presidential results and a district variable, calculated from the results released by the ECK and the ODM.