Thursday, July 31, 2008



July 31 2008
Daily Nation

However, by softening his image, Mr Odinga has alienated the radical constituencies in ODM, and these will probably peel off from the movement by 2012.

He probably calculates that he needs to be nice to Mr Kibaki to pick up new support that will compensate for that loss.

So, there is the deal: Raila treats Mr Kibaki respectfully, and continues to cultivate a moderate image, then he will be extremely competitive in 2012.

Mr Kibaki doesn’t need to endorse him, of course. All he has to do is not to oppose him. Then he can make his pick for successor from PNU ranks.

That way, if Mr Odinga wins, he will be grateful that President Kibaki didn’t undermine him.

If Mr Kibaki’s chosen successor wins, the victor will forever be thankful to the old man for anointing him. Either way, Mr Kibaki wins. All this bodes well for the coalition.

The other legitimate argument that has been made against the coalition is that it is “an arranged marriage”. That is slightly inaccurate, because Kenya didn’t have a choice if it wanted to remain one country and to stop the slaughter.

But do all arranged marriages fail? There is a view that arranged marriages last longer than those born of love. Expectations are very low, or sometimes non-existent, so disappointment levels tend to be low too.

Of more interest is whether anyone really ever marries for love.

Usually, we are either trying to beat the biological clock; want to end our loneliness; we finally got a job and can afford to raise a family; or just feel the pressure from friends and family to get hitched; or think we have finally found the “right seed” to father or mother our children.

Show me someone who married purely out of love and I will