Friday, July 18, 2008



July 18, 2008
By Cyrus Ombati and Beauttah Omanga
The Standard

The National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) forewarned a presidential victory for Mr Mwai Kibaki in the last General Election was more likely to spark off violence than a Raila Odinga win.

NSIS Director General Maj-Gen Michael Gichangi said they had compared both scenarios and advised the Government accordingly on steps it needed to take.

NSIS warned the Government if Kibaki won, ODM and other opposition parties could resort to legal redress to form a parallel government and incite supporters to violence.

Spontaneous explosion of ethnic clashes and heightened activities by criminal gangs like Mungiki, Taliban, Kamjesh, Chinkororo and SLDF could also emerge as witnessed, NSIS warned.

On the other hand, a Raila win, Gichangi told the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence, would have generated celebrations-related violence amongst the ODM supporters, especially if PNU conceded defeat.

He said NSIS told relevant security agencies a Raila win would lead to Kibaki’s diehard supporters rejecting results and put the President under siege not to hand over power.

He made the revelations when he took to the stand at the commission sitting at the KICC.

Indicators for potential violence included cutthroat competition for political offices, unfinished constitutional review business, the Majimbo debate and political zoning, he said.

They had daily briefs with the Commissioner of Police, and Director of CID, Internal Security Minister and the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary.

He said under the Kenya Security and Intelligence Machinery, which provides for sharing of security intelligence, he advised relevant agencies on measures to be taken then to address the threat.

He said the 2005 referendum set the pace for last year’s elections and that it solidified ethnic blocs.