Thursday, May 1, 2008



By Jerry Okungu

Now the chickens are slowly coming home to roost! The bubble has burst wide open. Daggers are already drawn. Combatants on both sides of the political divide have gone back to the armoury. A battle royal is in the offing. The sex life in this short-lived marriage is dead. There is no more bliss in the bedroom. The blame game is once again in the open. Somebody has either failed or refused to perform!
A few weeks ago, I warned politicians on these pages of what was in the offing. At that time, I was merely using my sixth sense to predict the future of this unholy coalition. I wrote thus:

“Right now, Kenyans are angry with Raila who has refused to read the writing on the wall. They are asking why Raila cannot stick to the spirit and letter of the Accord and quit the coalition if Kibaki cannot honour this constitutional amendment. Right now Raila has allowed low level operatives in the Kibaki government to comment on the document they were not party to. He has allowed mere civil servants to prepare ground for his future insubordination and sabotage! Kenyans are annoyed with Raila because he has allowed PNU operatives to drag his name in the mud and erode his popularity with the people.”

At that time, it was beginning to look like the PNU operatives in the Civil Service had been detailed to irritate ODM as much as possible in the hope that the party would reject the revised terms of the Accord and stay out of the unholy alliance. They didn’t. Raila Odinga bent backwards and gave until there was nothing to give. He conceded everything he had bargained for.

What was obvious was that once Kibaki retained every crook in the old regime, he would set the hounds after Raila once he took the oath of office.

This hullaballoo about breaches of protocol procedures were seen coming. There is nothing new. Ambassador Muthaura, Alfred Mutua and Martha Karua had repeatedly reminded who cared to listen that Raila Odinga was number three in the pecking order of government. When the PNU denied him the Leader of Government position in Parliament, it was the last nail on the coffin.

I said that the ground was being prepared for future insubordination by junior operatives. Now that systematic embarrassment has started Sammy Lui in Gachoka to be repeated by George Saitoti in Rift Valley; a man who is ideally number six in the pecking order after Kibaki, Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Uhuru! And don’t get me wrong. Saitoti is not to blame. He doesn’t write protocol scripts for the President’s functions. He merely repeated the same script that was read by Sammy Lui at Jeremiah Nyagah’s funeral a week earlier.

The bitter pill that the ODM brigade must swallow is that they have been lured into the lion’s den and if they don’t fight hard now, they will be mauled one by one! As they grumble, bicker and snarl at each other, the unity of purpose that made them stick together before this shameful government was formed will dissipate. The only way they can regain their honour with the Kenyan public is to come out fighting for honour and mutual respect irrespective of the consequences.

If they allow loose tongues in the PNU and government functionaries to snipe at them, the public will not turn against Kibaki and PNU. They will revolt against Raila Odinga and his ODM brigade! If this happens, then God help Kenya!

In this sad scenario, two things will happen. First, the Mungiki will strengthen their resolve to cause havoc knowing so well that the coalition government will collapse sooner rather than later. Secondly the Rift Valley IDPs had better look for other pieces of land elsewhere because they will not be allowed back in the Rift Valley.

If the two come to pass and Kibaki details his Internal Security Minister to apply brute force in resettling the IDPs, Rift Valley will surely be the theatre of a bloody war like never seen before.

Right now we know the government has the monopoly of instruments of violence if the Mt. Elgon operations are anything to go by. Yes, the memories of the Wagalla and Kisumu massacres are still fresh in our memories. But what it must remember is that militias anywhere in the world are no easy opponents for any government especially in a place like Rift Valley where the Pokots, Saboats and Turkanas are already armed.

It is for these reasons that any right thinking Kenyan must ask President Kibaki, Ambassador Muthaura, Martha Karua and Alfred Mutua to stop rocking the boat with this constitution thing that Kenyans are fed up with. If they can cling to a stinking document for self aggrandisement then they had better prepare for the consequences. The blood of Kenyans will surely soak their hands.